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Question: Given that many plant species are capable of propagating - without human intervention - over substantial distances[1] and that there have already been documented cases of GM crops invading land on which they were not planted, if the widespread planting of GM crops is permitted then it seems to me that there is no reasonably economic set of measures which will ensure consumers will always have the option to buy non-GM food at reasonable prices. I.e. it seems to me that eventually, only crops carefully guarded from contamination - e.g. grown under glass or plastic, with regular spot checks to guard against accidental ingress via doors/windows - would be able to be guaranteed to be free of GM contamination; and clearly the labour and infrastructure costs would make such crops significantly more expensive to produce than if open field GM crops were disallowed and the safeguards were not necessary. This would lead to a situation in which only the wealthiest members of society would be able to afford to keep their diets GM-free. Are my concerns unfounded? NB: Please don't reply to the question by saying that GM food is perfectly safe and no one should feel any need to keep their diets GM free: such a reply would be both patronising, and a failure to answer my question! [1] See Darwin's work on this, for instance.
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Nathan commented on :
@Les… Exactly what does it mean to “keep levels of GM seeds to below 0.3%”? Also, assuming that this is possible, wouldn’t this still result in a gradual dilution of all GM-free plants with some element of GM products? Would farmers be able to recognise plants GM plants from non-GM plants to always remove them?
My assumption is that, even if a test were devised to distinguish GM from non-GM plants on an individual basis, it would be completely infeasible to implement it on a rigorous scale to remove all “GM-contaminated” plants before they reached the consumer. Likewise, I presume that it would be impossible to test every seed before use. Let’s suppose, therefore, that 0.3% of GM-contaminated plants in a supposedly GM-free crop would the next season result in 0.3% GM-contaminated seeds in the supposedly GM-free crop *plus* the next season’s contamination too. By 2050, this would already look like 11% contamination and after 50 seasons, it would be 14% contamination. Now, I’m hoping to be alive in 50 years, so this is not an irrelevant question for today’s young people.
Moreover, this is only simple exponential growth. One might in fact expect that the growth could actually be substantially worse than this simplistic calculation, because: 1) the 0.3% of contaminated crops would cross-contaminate other crops in the field at a far higher rate than that of crops in the “safely” distant GM crop fields; and 2) this affect would become more and more dramatic over time as the contaminated portion grew.
spkspk commented on :
Les, plants can propagate much further than 110m! Seeds have been recorded travelling across oceans – stuck to the mud on birds’ feet, for instance. As such, it seems a little misleading of you to mention separation distances and national policy, since although both these measures can affect the rate of contamination, neither of them can reduce it to zero, and neither of them can absolutely control where the contamination will occur.
Surely, the only way to prevent contamination would be an international ban on open field GM crops?
Jules commented on :
Hi spkspk – take a look at my comment above – the alternative is the use of thresholds which are used throughout the food supply chain today as a way of allowing choice in the market place
spkspk commented on :
Hi Julian, thanks, but your reply does not really answer my question.
You note that the presence in any of the ingredients in a product of more than x% (currently 0.9%) GM content would mean that the whole product would have to be labelled as GM. Yet this is no comfort at all if no adequate safeguards are in place to ensure farmers everywhere will have the ability in perpetuity to grow crops with GM content below that threshold. The closest Scimac comes to providing such safeguards is with their vague redress proposals, which in theory provide an economic incentive to farmers to avoid contaminating others’ crops. However, as we know, this amounts to an economic incentive to achieve the literally impossible – which is obviously ridiculous. What is more, the redress proposals have every appearance of being (intentionally, perhaps, since Scimac is obviously partisan) legally unworkable except in the most straightforward cases of contamination.
I should add that I did not say that ensuring that all food is entirely non-GM* is impossible. On the contrary, I believe it is entirely possible, by the simple expedient of an international ban on open field GM crops.
Would you agree?
* I think you may have made a slightly Freudian typo in your remark that,
pheed commented on :
Some plant species can propagate long distances – dandelions, grasses etc – but there are lots of different types of plants, and some don’t spread very easily at all. I think domestic crops are in the latter category.
Les commented on :
Most crop seeds don’t travel very far, unless on farm machinery etc, and that’s why there are rules about keeping machinery clean. Pollen goes a bit further. But a tiny number of seeds and some pollen can travel many miles, because of a strong wind, or they get stuck on a bird.
Les commented on :
It’s all about risks. If you want totally no risk of any GM material getting into non-GM, that means don’t grow GM crops in the open. But that threatens the freedom of choice of those people who want GM crops. The separation distances have been worked out to give freedom of choice and very low levels of GM seeds and pollen in non-GM crops.